MAIN (PPV) CARD
Lyoto Machida -450
Mauricio Rua +325
IHK’s pick – Lyoto, Second, TKO
Notes: Lyoto always starts out his matches slow. I predict little action in the first and then some “sharp shooter” punches/kicks in the second. Rua has had a few good fights in recent years, but none at Lyoto’s level. Lyoto has been criticized as being “boring” so I would expect some good action in the second. Considering this is a title defense, you could see Lyoto hanging out until the third. Rua will push the pace as the odds of him lasting five rounds is not good.
Money: any money I can scrape up to put on Machida to win. I’m hoping to get a line below 400, but that’s only going to happen on an injury rumor.
Actual: Lyoto, decision. This was a terrible fight for Lyoto. He wasn’t aggressive and I gave more rounds to Rua than Lyoto. Rua is back to his old self (Pride days). I’m sure many people are seeing Rua in a new light. I think a rematch is not far off. Lyoto was lucky and he had better change whatever he is doing to prepare for his fights or he’ll lose his belt.
Cain Velasquez -280
Ben Rothwell +210
IHK’s pick – Cain, first, TKO
Notes: Cain wants a shot at the Heavyweight title and Rothwell is a good match-up to see how Cain will react to a heavy guy. I think Cain will take things to the ground early and do his ground and pound. Rothwell has the reach advantage, so he’ll make Cain pay for any attempt at shooting. I think Cain wants it more than new UFCer Rothwell.
Money: I may put some on Cain, but only if Lyoto odds change.
Actual: Cain, second, TKO. This should have been stopped in the first. Velasquez took down Rothwell at will, but relied on his “ground and pound” and didn’t do any submissions when he had the chance. Rothwell got an early stoppage, but, in reality, he was getting dominated.
Gleison Tibau (lines TBD)
Josh Neer (lines TBD)
IHK’s pick: Tibau, 1st, submission
Notes: Neer is a late replacement for Swick (a front runner for a GSP title match) and has been in and out of the UFC a number of times. Late replacements never do very well (but don’t tell Kimbo Slice that!) when faced with someone who has been gearing up for a big fight (notable: Cain vs. Congo). Tibau’s ground is really good and I would expect to see a submission early on. I predict a really lame match.
Money: none
Actual: Tibau, decision. What a lame fight. Tibau takes Neer down numerous times but can’t do anything. Not one submission. Lame fight. Tibau looked gassed in the third. I think Swick would have one this one.
Joe Stevenson -220
Spencer Fisher +175
IHK’s pick: Stevenson, decision
Notes: I think these two will go back and forth. Neither are amateurs. I would give the nod to Stevenson due to the number of points Stevenson can gain on his stand up and ground game. Either way, I wouldn’t put money on this one as the match is too unpredictable. I can’t wait to see it.
Money: none
Actual: Stevenson, 2nd, TKO. Fisher was cut early and didn’t have an answer to Stevenson’s game plan. Stevenson looked great.
Anthony Johnson -300
Yoshiyuki Yoshida +220
IHK’s pick: Johnson, 1st, TKO
Notes: They are matching up the experienced Yoshida with the younger Johnson. Both like to stand up. Yoshida hasn’t gone past the second round in any of his fights. I believe Yoshida will push the pace in the first round prompting Johnson to respond. I’m giving this one to Johnson due to his size and ability to finish. He’ll have his hands full on this match.
Money: none
Actual: Johnston, 1st, TKO. Easy one for Johnson.
UNDERCARD
Pat Barry -105
Antoni Hardonk -125
IHK’s pick: Hardonk, TKO, 2nd
Notes: I think Hardonk needs a win a little more than Barry and Hardonk will use this fight to show that he can fight in the main card. Hardonk is a good striker and I believe he’ll get a TKO in the 2nd.
Money: none – this one is far too uncertain.
Actual: Patrick Barry, TKO, 2nd
Yushin Okami -250
Chael Sonnen +185
IHK’s pick: Okami, decision
Notes: both these guys are long in the tooth fighters and will battle it out over three rounds. Don’t expect an overly exciting fight.
Money: none – too uncertain with these two. Both have had injuries recently, so who knows.
Actual: Sonnen takes a unanimous decision, scores of 30-27 across the board. Okami didn’t show up for the fight. Sonnen gave a great performance.
Jorge Rivera
Rob Kimmons
IHK’s pick: Rivera, TKO, 1st
Notes: Both TUF alum, neither have a great record in UFC. This is the classic striker vs. submission and this fight will come down to “who can control who”….will Kimmons take it to the ground or will Rivera keep it standing. I’ll go for the striker esp if Rivera can get Kimmons on the ground and score points.
Money: none
Actual: Rivera the win by TKO
Ryan Bader -500
Eric Schafer +350
IHK’s pick: Bader, TKO, 1st
Notes: Both like to strike. Maybe Bader can be a force in the 205 – we’ll see. Schafer is a good match-up and it should be a good fight. I don’t know why the line is so against Schafer – I think it could be closer than what the odds makers are reporting.
Money: this could be a good “money fight” – Schafer could pull this one out. He has more experience than Bader and has good ground skills.
Actual: Ryan Bader takes the unanimous decision with scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 29-26.
Kyle Kingsbury
Razak Al-Hassan
IHK’s pick: Al-Hassan, decision
Notes: a huge fight for both as this is Kingsbury’s first fight out of TUF and Al-Hassan’s second fight in the UFC (his first loss is one of the most gruesome and controversial arm-breaking arm bars that you will ever see). Both need a win for the UFC to keep them around. I think both fighters will try to get each other in submissions over the three rounds and it will come down to points.
Money: none – both fighters are too new and unpredictable.
Actual: Official scores are 29-28, 29-28 and 28-29. Kingsbury takes the split decision
